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National Weather Service
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 27 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026
...Overview...
Broad troughing will be present across southern Canada and east of the Rockies while ridging exists across the Southwest to start the medium range period Friday. By the weekend, a strong cold front and arctic high pressure will move into the northern tier, bringing colder temperatures. Under the Southwest ridge, above normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the 90s potentially breaking records in the Desert Southwest. As the high pressure retreats off to the northeast, Pacific shortwave energy and moisture may overrun this colder airmass Monday into Tuesday brining a wintry precipitation threat to portions of the MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model guidance generally remains in good agreement on the large scale pattern through the medium range with quick zonal flow and a strong north to south temperature gradient across the country. A strong arctic high and cold front will drop south across the Plains and east coast this weekend into early next week. While this synoptic evolution features average to below average model spread, the exact strength and timing of these features will significantly impact the temperature forecast across the country. A multi model blend should suffice to capture a middle ground outcome, but there is an unusually large spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM...highlighting the temperature uncertainty near the baroclinic zone.
Model spread and uncertainty begins to increase a bit by Monday into Tuesday as a closed low moves towards CA. Model differences seem to relate to both how quickly the northeast trough exits, and how much energy cuts off within the CA upper low vs gets ejected eastward across the country. With the retreating arctic high the pattern would favor a wintry precipitation risk from portions of the MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast if any appreciable pacific energy is able to eject eastward. There have been large run to run variations in these details lowering confidence. The 00z EC and GFS are actually now in pretty good agreement, but given the aforementioned run to run variability this agreement could just be a matter of luck for this cycle and odds are we continue to see model fluctuations over the coming days. It should also be noted that recent AIFS runs hold back most of the energy resulting in less of a overrunning precipitation threat than what the GFS and EC show. Not necessarily saying this solution will be right, just noting it as an example of the degree of uncertainty that exists with these details.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A passing cold front will likely bring showers and thunderstorms to Florida Friday into Saturday. There is an increasing signal that a wave of low pressure will develop along this front, which should act to both enhance forcing/moisture transport and slow the frontal progression. Both of these factors should lead to a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event with 1-2" common, and more localized swaths of 2-4" possible. It takes quite a bit of rain and high rates to exceed flash flood guidance over FL, and so we will not introduce any excessive rainfall risk area at this time...although minor urban flooding is a possibility.
A weak clipper on the edge of the southward dropping arctic high will likely bring a swath of light snow from MT into the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast from Friday through Sunday. While not expected to be a significant event, models are trending towards a bit higher QPF with this feature, and we did need to adjust the NBM upward to account for this.
More significant uncertainty exists regarding the potential for overrunning winter precipitation from the MS Valley into the Northeast Monday into Tuesday. As mentioned above, the overall pattern would favor a wintry mix of precipitation types as shortwave energy/moisture overruns the retreating arctic high pressure. The more energy that ejects out of the west coast trough/closed low and the more significant the precipitation risk. If troughing over the northeast holds stronger and less pacific energy/moisture makes it east then we would see a less impactful precipitation risk. Too much model spread and run to run variability to know these details...but a threat of snow/sleet/freezing rain could exist anywhere from the the mid MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Monday into Tuesday. Exactly where these ptypes occur, and also the magnitude of totals, remains unclear.
The western two-thirds of the country will be much warmer than average on Friday due to the upper ridge over the Southwest. The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average, which spreads highs in the 60s as far north as Nebraska and South Dakota. However, a strong cold front carrying an airmass from Alaska and vicinity will bring much colder temperatures to the northern tier by the weekend. Single digit highs and lows below 0F are likely for parts of North Dakota/Minnesota, with wind chills as low as 20 to 30 degrees below zero. Ahead of this front unseasonably warm temperatures continue across portions of the southern tier, and highs reaching the 90s in the Desert Southwest could set records. In the East, periods of slightly above average temperatures are expected, until the cold front reaches the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with chillier temperatures by later Sunday into Monday.
Chenard